Existing-home sales take a sleigh ride to the sky with highest jump since 2021

The housing industry is getting an early Christmas gift. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing-home sales in November rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million, a 4.8% increase over the revised October number and a 6.1% increase year over year.

The annualized rate is the highest seen since the tally of 4.22 million in March 2024, and it’s the highest year-over-year increase since a 23% gain in June 2021. And that number includes a huge caveat as June 2020 was at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.

The jump in sales gives the market momentum heading into 2025, which is expected to outperform 2024. The growth also bucks the historic trend of sales dropping between October and November.

For homebuyers, the good news is that the median sale price continues to fall, with November’s figure landing at $406,100. While that’s a 4.7% year-over-year increase, it’s the fifth consecutive month of declines from the 2024 peak of $426,900 in June.

Elevated inventory has put downward pressure on prices this year, but November’s numbers foreshadow a potential tightening. The number of homes for sales dropped month over month to 1.33 million, a 2.9% decline from October.

Months of supply also took a tumble, falling by 9.5% to 3.8 months. Total inventory and months of supply are at their lowest levels since June, but they’re still up year over year by 17.7% and 8.6%, respectively.

Sales are also up year over year in every region of the country, led by the West (+14.9%) and followed by the Northeast (+6.3%), Midwest (+5.3%) and South (+3.3%). Each region saw similar growth on a monthly basis compared to October, except for the unchanged sales rate in the West.

The existing-home sales report comes as major real estate companies are releasing their forecasts for the 2025 housing market.

HousingWire’s forecast, penned by Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami and Altos Research President Mike Simonsen, project 4.2 million sales in 2025, a number that is close to the current rate of 4.15 million reported by NAR. Forecasts from other companies range from 4 million by Realtor.com and 4.9 million by NAR.