2025 mortgage predictions: Your playbook for a winning year

If 2024 was a rollercoaster, 2025 is shaping up to be a championship game—and every buyer, seller and homeowner has a shot at winning big. 

After a year filled with rate swings, unpredictable markets and a bit of drama (thank you, inflation), the real estate world is ready for a fresh start. Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, upgrade or simply gain clarity on the current market, this guide is your insider’s playbook to tackle 2025 with confidence. 

Wrapping up 2024

Let’s get one thing straight: 2024 kept us on our toes. Interest rates were as unpredictable as Vegas weather—dropping to 5.75% in September only to spike back up near 7.125%. Despite this, the Las Vegas housing market held its ground with steady appreciation, climbing 5-7%. 

The key takeaway? Real estate is resilient, and the market proved once again that patience and strategy pay off. 

Setting the Stage for 2025

Here’s the good news, 2025 is set to stabilize. Although no person can truly predict mortgage rates for there are several factors involved; Industry forecasts predict interest rates will hover between 5.5% and 6%, with potential dips below 6% by mid-year. If that happens, expect a surge in activity as buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines finally jump in. 

Spring will bring its usual momentum—warmer weather, increased foot traffic and more market activity. By March, we’re likely to see a healthy uptick in sales. If you’re looking to buy or sell, now’s the time to start prepping. 

First-time buyers: It’s your moment

Let’s talk about first-time homebuyers. If you’re in this group, 2025 could be your year.  

Here’s your game plan: 

Check your credit: A score of 640 opens the door to FHA loans and down payment assistance programs. Boost it to 680 for access to better DPA rates and terms. Ultimately your long term credit score goal should focus on eventually getting to a 760 mid credit score for better rates and terms.

Save strategically: Even with down payment assistance, you’ll need some savings for earnest money and closing costs. Sellers are offering incentives now, but those could wane as the market heats up in spring. 

Get prepped early: Speak with a mortgage professional now to position yourself for success when the right home hits the market. 

Pro tip: Today’s market is buyer friendly. Many sellers are offering to cover 2-3% of closing costs. This is a trend that may not last once the market picks up. I recommend if you are looking to buy, there is no better day than today.  

The rate reality

Let’s address the elephant in the room — interest rates. Yes, they’re higher than the historic lows we saw during COVID, but those were a once in a lifetime anomaly. The long term average rate over the past 25 years? Around 7.5%. 

Here’s why this matters: today’s rates, while higher than in recent years, are still below average. Plus, buying now means you’re building equity while others wait, and you’ll have the chance to refinance if rates dip in the future. 

The year a “normal” market returns

The word on everyone’s mind is “normal.” After years of market swings, 2025 is poised to bring a balanced, healthy real estate environment. Inventory levels should gradually increase, particularly if rates drop below 6%, as homeowners with low-rate mortgages finally feel comfortable selling and upgrading. 

For buyers and sellers alike, this means more opportunities, fewer bidding wars and a market that feels refreshingly predictable. 

The bottom line

2025 isn’t just another year — it’s an opportunity to reset, refocus and thrive. With stabilizing rates, motivated sellers and a steady appreciation forecast, it’s time to make your move. Whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading to your dream house or locking in a solid refinance, the tools are in your hands to win big this year. 

So, what’s your game plan? 

Tim Deibert, president of note. A Mortgage Agency.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.

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