‘Gray tsunami’ comes to South Carolina, testing local resources

The state of South Carolina is experiencing an influx of retired baby boomers, which could test the capacity of its infrastructure in areas such as health care and transportation services, as well as resources for dealing with isolation and the job market, according to reporting by Charleston-based newspaper The Post and Courier.

In the realm of housing, the term “silver tsunami” often refers to the idea that older homeowners will aim to downsize and sell their homes, theoretically flooding the market with new inventory. Such a scenario has not occurred and analysts, including HousingWire’s Logan Mohtashami, doubt it ever will.

This is reinforced by survey data indicating that older homeowners are unwilling to sell their homes at all, electing to either age in place or keep them within their families.

In other contexts — particularly within the reverse mortgage industry — a gray or silver tsunami simply refers to demographic trends where the older population takes up an increasingly larger share of the total population. This is a phenomenon that has been observed throughout the U.S., and it appears to be striking South Carolina acutely, according to the reporting.

“South Carolina’s rapidly growing population is approaching an important threshold: In just a few years there will be more residents above the age of 64 than below the age of 18,” the story reads. “More than a third of residents will be 65 or older in at least five South Carolina counties by 2040.”

In some of these areas, which are noted for being popular retirement destinations, more than one-quarter of residents are at least 65 as of this year and the numbers “are growing,” the report explained.

Glenn McConnell, who served as the state’s lieutenant governor between 2012 and 2014, warned the state Legislature during his final months in office that South Carolina needed better preparation for an influx of retirees. A “failure to prepare for South Carolina’s oncoming ‘gray tsunami’ will cause a budget crisis and human tragedies,” he told lawmakers, according to reporting from The Associated Press at the time.

When reached by the Post and Courier, McConnell said it was “stunning” to hear that some counties within the state have already reached the threshold he thought in 2014 would be further off.

“Challenges with health care services, social isolation, transportation and filling jobs related to caring for the elderly are all expected to grow,” the report explained.

Frank Rainwater, executive director of the state’s Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office, described some of the challenges that would need to be addressed by the government in the coming years.

“On a state level, you will need more assisted-living facilities, more nursing home beds, more medical facilities,” he said. “It’s nice, people want to come here to live and retire. But from our perspective, how does government provide services?”

The issue may be approaching critical mass in a state like South Carolina, but it is not the only state that expects to have to reorient services to meet the needs of an increasingly older population. Higher costs of living are pushing more older homeowners toward aging in place or other novel solutions, like taking on roommates.

And recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) suggests that the growing popularity of aging in place will constrain housing supply for years to come.