New Hampshire’s hot housing market has the state in crisis mode

Known for its rural communities, quaint towns, scenic lakes and mountain vistas, New Hampshire is probably not where you would expect to find one of the nation’s hottest housing markets — but the data says otherwise.

According to Zillow, the city of Manchester, New Hampshire, was the most popular market on the listing portal in 2024 in terms of page views, home-price appreciation and time on market.

Altos Research data lists the Boston-Cambridge-Quincy metro area that straddles the Massachusetts-New Hampshire line as the hottest housing market in the country as of Dec. 18, with a market action index score of 55.77. Across New Hampshire as a whole, the market action index score is 47, down from a peak of 61 set in May 2024. Altos considers anything above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

“I am super busy right now,” said Charissa Kennard, an agent for Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Verani Realty. “There is a lot of inventory right now, which is good because there are a lot more options for clients right now. Instead of looking at one home and having to place a bid right away, they get to look at three to five homes.”

According to Kennard, some of her clients have even been able to negotiate concessions or a lower sale price on some properties. But even with that, she said the market has remained hot. And with continual strong demand for housing in the state, it comes as no surprise that New Hampshire is currently facing a housing crisis.

“The supply crisis and the resulting affordability crisis are problems that have been building for a long time, and it has really hit this fever pitch where it is widely recognized as the biggest challenge facing the state,” said Rob Dapice, the executive director and CEO of New Hampshire Housing.

“We have one of the tightest housing markets and we have an economy that has grown more quickly than the economies in other New England states, which in a lot of ways reflects that we bill ourselves as being a business-friendly state.”

The state’s business-friendly regulations and tax laws — which include no state income tax or state sales tax — have resulted in quite the influx of people over the past few years. This was especially true after the COVID-19 pandemic opened up more remote-work opportunities.

According to data from the IRS that was analyzed by a local news station, more than 16,000 people moved into the Granite State from 2020 to 2022. Additionally, United Van Lines’ National Movers Study shows that in 2023, 54% of moves in New Hampshire were inbound. In contrast, 57% of the moves in neighboring Massachusetts were classified as outbound.

This massive influx of new residents calling New Hampshire home has caused a strain on the state’s housing inventory. As of mid-December, the 90-day average number of active single-family listings in the state was 1,913, according to data from Altos Research. Although this number has grown over the past three years, it is still well below the 90-day average of 5,319 active listings recorded in December 2019.

“Housing inventory in the state has been declining over the past 12 to 13 years, but we saw a pretty steep decline during COVID. We were already on the path, but COVID made us sprint to our destination,” said Bob Quinn, CEO of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR). “We need to get 6,000 or 7,000 homes on the market a month.”

The prolonged low-inventory situation, combined with the continued influx of new residents, has resulted in a current housing shortage of 23,500, according to NH Housing’s 2023 Statewide Housing Needs Assessment.

Based on the state’s estimated population growth, nearly 60,000 additional units of housing are needed between 2020 and 2030, while nearly 90,000 units are needed between 2020 and 2040. This is based on an estimate that some 52,500 households will be added between 2020 and 2030, or roughly 74,400 between 2020 and 2040.

Such a massive need for new homes has resulted in soaring home-price appreciation across the state. In mid-December, the 90-day average median list price in New Hampshire was $600,000, up $50,000 from a year prior and nearly $300,000 higher than in December 2019, according to Altos data.

Additionally, data from NHAR shows that only 61% of homes for sale in the state are affordable to people earning the median income.

“It is no wonder that a significant majority of New Hampshire families can no longer afford a home — and that’s a concern,” Quinn said.

According to Kennard at Berkshire Hathaway, roughly 30% of the listings she sees that include lower price points are full rehabs or teardowns. These are typically not the homes that buyers with smaller budgets or those using Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans can afford, she said.

“If you list anything that is $250,000 or under, it’s not on the market very long, unless it isn’t really worth $250,000,” Kennard said.

For many, these challenges bring into question whether the state is really ready for further economic growth and development.

“A lack of necessary housing definitely limits an area’s growth potential,” said Janel Lawton, the director of the office of outdoor recreation and industry development for the state of New Hampshire.

“People want the economy to be even stronger, and it would be if we had more houses for sale. We have hospitals and employers telling us that they can’t hire people because we don’t have any houses to sell them,” Andy Smith, the broker-owner of Badger Peabody & Smith Realty, added.

Editor’s note: Look for additional HousingWire reporting on the New Hampshire housing market soon.