The fall housing market could see hotter competition, Zillow says

Lower mortgage rates over the past several months have led to increased affordability for prospective homebuyers, and this could lead to an extra competitive fall 2024 season.

That’s according to a Zillow report released Thursday in which the Seattle-based real estate company said that “lower mortgage rates and rising inventory are giving home buyers a window of opportunity at an unusual time of year.“

Zillow noted that the U.S. median monthly mortgage payment in August had declined by more than $100 since peaking in May. On a monthly basis, the median payment dropped 3.4% in August to $1,827. That figure does not includes taxes or insurance, and it assumes that a buyer made a down payment of 20% with a mortgage rate of 6.5%.

“Late summer may be an opportunity for buyers who have been waiting in the wings for a monthly mortgage payment they can qualify for,“ Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen said in a statement.

“Buyers have more options to choose from for two reasons. For one, it’s easier to qualify for more of the homes on the market now that mortgage rates are a bit lower. Beyond that, more inventory is becoming available — enough to improve buyer negotiating power. Attractive properties in hot markets are still selling quickly, but some metros — or neighborhoods within them — have flipped further in favor of buyers.“

Zillow reported that nationwide active inventory was up 22% year over year in August, although it remained 31% lower than the pre-pandemic level of August 2019. New listings, meanwhile, grew slightly on a monthly and yearly basis but were 21% lower than the same month in 2019.

Inventory growth has slowed, the company noted, but with about 1.18 million homes on the market, buyers have the most properties to choose from since September 2020.

The share of listings that include a price cut is also sure to increase competition among buyers. This share moved slightly lower in August but remains at roughly 25%. Additionally, Zillow reported that “competition is stiff for attractive listings, with more than one-third of homes selling for over asking price.“

Homes are also selling more quickly compared to pre-pandemic days. The typical home sold in August took 20 days to go under contract, up from 18 days in July but down from 26 days in August 2019.

Realtor.com also reported this week that the fall season could be favorable to buyers. The listings portals said that the week of Sept. 29 to Oct. 5 is expected to be the “best time to buy” this year. Buyers could have up to 37% more inventory to choose from compared to the start of the year, and they could save at least $14,000 on the median-priced home compared to peak prices during the summer.

More homes are being listed for sale and affordability metrics are improving, but this isn’t translating to more deals. Redfin reported last week that pending sales fell 8.4% during the 12 months ending in August, the largest annualized decrease in nearly a year.

Importantly, Zillow also notes that mortgage rates — which crept down to 6.42% on a 30-year conforming loan as of Thursday, according to HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center — don’t impact buyers and sellers in the same manner.

“Lower rates could stall or slow a normal autumn cooldown, because right now buyers are more likely to be motivated by lower rates than sellers are,“ Zillow explained.